Behind the paper: changing patterns of monarch butterfly migration

We talk to Carolina Ureta and colleagues, authors of the recent PLOS Climate publication “Regional risk shifts to monarch butterfly migration due to climate change”

What led you to decide on this research question?

Our research was motivated by observed changes in the distribution of resident populations of monarch butterflies, including the establishment of year-round, non-migratory breeding populations in northeast and central Mexico.

How did you go about designing your study?

We asked what the monarch butterfly requires to successfully migrate north instead of remaining in Mexico. We concluded that it needs not only suitable climatic conditions, but also a continuous and functional ecosystem along the entire traditional migratory route, including the availability of food resources, resting sites, shelter, and suitable areas for oviposition.

Did you encounter any challenges in collecting or interpreting your data?

After completing the distribution modeling of all the Asclepias species of host plants, I questioned whether they were annual or perennial, as this could have significantly affected the interpretation of our results. I quickly consulted one of the coauthors, who is an expert on this plant group, and confirmed that all species of the genus present in Mexico are perennial. This allowed us to proceed with confidence.

What struck you most about your results? What are the key messages and who do you hope might benefit from these new insights?

One of the most striking results was the projected southward shift in climatic suitability under climate change scenarios. This highlights the need to reconsider current monarch conservation strategies and to anticipate potential changes in the migratory dynamics of the species.

What further research would you like to see in this area?

It would be important to begin monitoring areas identified as highly suitable in order to detect the potential establishment of resident individuals. This could be assessed, for example, through morphological traits such as reduced wing size.

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